The Show - An Online OOTP Baseball Simulation League

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Well we did a bit better with our predictions for the League Championship Series’ then we had for the Division Series’, going 1/2. The Red Sox swept away the Cleveland Indians and have now won 7 consecutive post-season games. Meanwhile, the Nationals, who I have now bet against twice, overcame a game 1 loss to win the next 4 games and eliminate the Braves from the post-season in 5 games. As we get ready for another exciting World Series, let’s take a look at each team position by position.

Catcher
Bryce Harper vs. Michael Ambort

On the surface this one is a no brainer. Harper is perhaps the elite offensive catcher in the entire game. But when you break this down a little further, it is actually not as clear cut as it seems. Harper posted a line of .286/.375/.544/.919 during the regular season against Ambort’s line of .296/.335/.439/.773. Harper had the clearly better season, but since the turn of the calendar into the post-season Harper has struggled. He has posted a line of .194/.342/.516/.858 in the playoffs while Ambort has posted a line of .429/.432/.629/1.061 during the playoffs. During the LCS, it was again Ambort who out-performed Harper blasting 2 home runs to go along with 4 RBI’s in the series sweep of the Indians. So the big question is who heads into the World Series with the advantage?

Advantage: Ambort…but not by much.

First Base
Gaby Sanchez vs. Lars Anderson

The battle of first base bears no clear cut paper champion. Sanchez and Anderson put up very similar numbers during the regular season, .881 OPS vs. .817 OPS in favour of Anderson. Fast forward to the post-season and both first basemen have struggled to find their stroke. Sanchez boasts a .558 OPS through the first two rounds while Anderson’s sits at .525. Both men have the bat to provide their teams more and this one matchup might be a turning point of the series.

Advantage: Even

Second Base
Gordon Beckham vs. Dustin Pedroia

This, like every other position, is a highly competitive fight between two of the game’s best second basemen. Gordon Beckham belted 25 home runs en route to a .784 OPS during the regular season while Pedroia put up a line of .300/.351/.416/.767 during the regular season. Both player’s have excelled during the post-season, helping lead their respective teams all the way to the World Series. Beckham has posted an OPS of .941 during the playoffs while Pedroia has been even better with an OPS of 1.153. Pedroia was even better during the sweep of the Indians with an OPS or 1.299 and if he carries that hot streak into the World Series, the Nats are going to have all kinds of problems with him.

Advantage: Pedroia

Third Base
Ryan Zimmerman vs. Kevin Youkilis

Third is yet another position where two All Stars will battle it out. Youkilis is coming off a season where he posted a .820 OPS while belting 32 home runs and driving in 115. He has continued that into the playoffs with a .963 OPS. His production has been huge for the middle of the Sox order in these playoffs, a stark contrast to Zimmerman’s post season production. After posting an OPS of .791 in the regular season, Zimmerman has struggled through the first two rounds, posting a .615 OPS. He will need to be all kinds of better for the Nats to counter the powerful Boston offense.

Advantage: Youkilis

Short Stop
Forrest Lee vs. Jed Lowrie

Lowrie isn’t known for his great bat, but after a .732 OPS during the regular season, Lowrie has stepped up his game big time in these playoffs to the tune of a .880 OPS. When you add a bat going at that pace to the defense he provides in the middle of the diamond, you have the potential for a truly impact player in the World Series. Across the diamond, the Nats have a very similar situation with Lee. After a disappointing season, posting a poor .684 OPS, Lee has turned the switch for the playoffs, improving his OPS to .950. The difference between these two is that while Lowrie hits in the bottom third of the order, the Nats rely on Lee to hit from the leadoff spot.

Advantage: Lee

Left Field
Kyle Blanks vs. Jacoby Ellsbury

For the BoSox, this is almost a toss up between Ellsbury and Reddick, as both saw significant time in left this past season. Ellsbury played exclusively in left when he wasn’t the DH, while Reddick split his time between left and right, so we went with Ellsbury in left and Reddick in right. Ellsbury put together another great season at the top of the Red Sox line-up posting a .370 OBP and a .826 OPS. His speed causes all kinds of chaos for opposing teams; he swiped 53 bases this past season to go along with his 211 hits. He has been even better in these playoffs posting an OPS of 1.036. Across the diamond the Nats boast a middle of the line-up big bat with Blanks. Blanks had a terrific season posting an OPS of .967 to go along with 29 home runs and 122 RBI’s. That regular season success has not followed Blanks into the playoffs as his OPS has dipped to just .657. The Nats need a lot more from the middle of their order if they hope to bring home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Advantage: Ellsbury

Center Field
Grady Sizemore vs. Jason Place

The battle in center field is an interesting one. The Red Sox trot out Jason Place every day at his second best position while the Nats paid top dollar to a career underachiever in Sizemore, two interesting moves for the two best franchises in all of baseball. Sizemore is perhaps the most perplexing, gifted with a 5 tool set he has not put up a great season since 2010 with the Indians. His OPS of .742 this year was respectable, but not for a $21 million dollar player. While he has hit better in the post season (.290 vs. .248), his OPS is actually lower then the season at .720. In Boston, the Red Sox turned to the rookie Place this year and he responded with a big time rookie season, 30 home runs and a .788 OPS. While he had a tough Division Series, he has come around through the Championship Series, posting an OPS of .817.

Advantage: Place

Right Field
Mike Stanton vs. Josh Reddick

The battle in right field boasts two of the game’s best sluggers going head to head. Reddick, who also sees significant time in left field, posted a regular season OPS of .808 to go along with 28 long balls and 109 RBI’s. He hasn’t bee able to continue that success into the playoffs, as he has struggled badly to an OPS of just .520. The Red Sox need him to get hot and get hot fast if they hope to be the first team to take a serious run at the Nats rotation. Somewhat luckily for Boston, Stanton hasn’t been very good during the playoffs either. After blasting 40 home runs during the regular season to go along with a .915 OPS, Stanton has struggled to a .754 OPS during the playoffs and is batting just .185. Like first base, the team that gets one of these two young stars hot might be a deciding factor in who hoists the World Series Trophy.

Advantage: Stanton

Designated Hitter
Michael Burgess vs. Ryan Westmoreland

The 23 year old Westmoreland had a disappointing season for the Red Sox, posting an OPS of just .653. The five tool talent has brought his power bat to the playoffs though, blasting 3 home runs so far to go along with 6 RBI’s in just 6 games. His 1.095 OPS is almost double that of his regular season OPS and he could be finally showing why the Sox have been so high on him. The Nats will counter with Michael Burgess who found his way into 130 game this season posting a 1.009 OPS during the regular season seeing most of his time in left field against left handed starters. His 23 home runs and 70 RBI’s dwarfed the production that the Sox got from Westmoreland, and he has also had a productive post-season so far, posting an OPS of 1.078 in 7 games. The 24 year old has huge power potential and could have some fun with the short porch in Fenway.

Advantage: Burgess

Rotation
Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen & Mat Latos vs. Casey Kelly, John Lackey & Jon Lester

The battle of the rotation is an interesting one. The Nationals have been under-estimated by this writer every step of the way so far but have found a way to continually win. While Zimmerman seems to hate starting game 1, getting blasted in both game 1’s he has started, he has rebounded in each series to provide a quality secondary start for the Nats. Overall, Zimmerman is 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in the post-season. Number’s that aren’t out of this world but that can win a World Series. He will want to set a better tone vs. the Red Sox in game 1, this time on the road in Boston. He will oppose Casey Kelly, who got absolutely hammered in the Sox opening round against the A’s and rebounded with a quality start in game 1 against the Indians. Kelly, will need to settle down as the Sox will need at least two quality starts from him if they hope to out-last the Nats.

Game two will feature perhaps the best starter during this post season in Drew Storen who has gone 3-0 in 3 starts with a 2.12 ERA and an absolutely dominating 0.65 WHIP. He will oppose John Lackey, who has struggled through two playoff starts, posting a 5.25 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The match-up here clearly goes to Storen, who the Nats will hope to get to twice in the series.

The final match-up pits Jon Lester against Mat Latos. Lester has posted 2 wins so far in the playoffs with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. He has struggled with 6 walks in just 15.2 innings but has also given up 21 hits. If the Nats put the bat on the ball at that pace it could spell doom for the Red Sox. Opposing him is Mat Latos, who has been good in these playoffs, despite not having a win to show for it. He has posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, but he has gone just 11.2 innings in 2 starts this post season and tossed just 158.2 in 28 starts during the regular season. Latos relies heavily on his pen to take him the rest of the way, but like we said about the Braves in the Division Series, there is no more tomorrow, if Latos can give the Nats more quality innings he is clearly the best third starter in this series.

Advantage: Nationals

Bullpen
Zach Braddock, Brian Bruney, Tyler Clippard, Austin Gray, Matt Capps & Brian Fuentes vs. Daniel Bard, Randy Flores, Boone Logan & Jonathan Papelbon

The Nationals clearly have a deeper pen then the Sox, using a total of 7 relievers versus the Sox six (though Sean Watson has only appeared in 1 game). The Nats showed faith in Fuentes against the Braves, keeping him in the closers role despite his struggles against the Reds. He responded by closing out all three games he was entrusted with saving against the Braves, but not before giving up another 2 runs in game 4. He still sits with a 2.18 WHIP during the playoffs and it would be difficult for many a Nationals fans to sit and watch the World Series slip away because the Nats refuse to turn to Matt Capps and his 0.00 ERA in just 0.2 IP during these playoffs.

The BoSox have no problems and no questions about who they turn to in a tight game to close it out. Papelbon has been one of the game’s best closers for a long time now and he has put together perhaps his best two week stretch since the beginning of the post-season. He is 6/7 in save opportunities in the playoffs with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Where the Sox might have some problems is getting the ball from the starter to the closer. After a sensational Division Series, the pen struggled against the Indians, giving up 9 runs in 11.1 innings in the ALCS. None of those were surrendered by Papelbon, which means Bard, Flores and Boone will have to be better in getting the lead to Papelbon to protect. If they have another series like they did in the ALCS, then it will be the bullpen that cost the Sox the World Series.

Advantage: Nationals

Prediction

Overall, this is a series of two very close teams. The pitching on both sides is very even as is the offense, but since I have to choose I’ll go with Fuentes blowing a save or two and Papelbon not blowing any. That will result in a 7 game World Series victory for the BoSox.

Boston in 7

American League

Oakland Athletics (92-70) vs. Cleveland Indians (97-65)

The two division winners should put on a classic match-up in their Division Series. It will pit the American Leagues 2nd best offense against the 2nd best pitching staff. Will the A’s have the depth in the rotation after Brett Anderson to contain the powerful Indians offense? Will the A’s offense (ranked 4th in the AL) put runs on the board against the Indians 6th ranked staff? Let’s take a look at some key match-ups
Key Match-ups
SP Brett Anderson vs. SP Aaron Laffey
Anderson, the clear staff ace in Oakland, had a spectacular year en route to a 19 win season. His 1.11 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average served him well in posting the lowest ERA of his career. The concern has to be the 27 home runs allowed against such a powerful offense in Cleveland. He will go pitch for pitch vs the Indians de facto ace in Aaron Laffey. The Indians rotation is perhaps under appreciated and over-looked. Led by Laffey, the Indians allowed just 4.4 runs per game vs. Oakland's 4.2. Laffey was a big part of that, posting career bests almost across the board. His 15 wins led the team and his 3.91 ERA was the best of his career. Where things could get messy for Laffey is the amount of base runners he allows, to the tune of a 1.40 WHIP this season. If he allows the A’s to put that many ducks on the pond then their offense will more often then not drive them home.
Advantage: Oakland
LF Shane Peterson vs. RF Nelson Cruz
The big boppers of the respective orders will look to help pace the offense. Peterson went yard 41 times this past season and posted an OPS of .869 for the season. The addition of Adam Dunn near the deadline brought better protection for Peterson and could be a core advantage for the A’s as the Indians will not have an easy decision on whether to pitch around Peterson. While the A’s have added better protection, the Indians boast a longer lineup with no real easy outs. Led by Nelson Cruz’s 35 deep fly’s and 106 RBI’s, the Indians have a potent offense. Cruz added an OPS of .812 this year and is one of the most dangerous long ball hitters in baseball.
Advantage: Even
CL Jason Knapp vs. Kinda CL Michael Wuertz
The A’s took a huge blow when their stopper Joey Devine was placed on the 60 day DL with bone chips in his elbow. The result was the A’s being left instilling Michael Wuertz to close out games, converting 5 saves in 7 opportunities down the stretch. Wuertz had another rock solid season, limiting the opposition to a .195 average and posting a WHIP of 1.10. This is his first gig as a closer and it is pressure time now. The same can be said about Knapp, who complete his 1st full season as a closer after being converted from the rotation. He took to the change well, saving 35 games in 42 opportunities and posting a WHIP of a tiny 1.02.
Advantage: Indians
Prediction: I think this series will come down to the staffs and the advantage there has to be with Oakland. A’s in 5.

Minnesota Twins (93-69) vs. Boston Red Sox (105-57)

I’m not sure there was any match-up the Red Sox wanted less then the Minnesota Twins. While the Twins head into the post-season as the wild card team, they have the best staff in all of baseball, allowing just 3.7 runs per game. Add to that, the 6th best offense in all of baseball, and the Twins could give the BoSox fits. While the BoSox themselves have the 2nd best offense in all of baseball, their staff is the 7th best allowing 4.2 runs per game. This series could test the age old rivalry of offense vs. pitching. The question might be answered if the Twins staff can post the same type of gaudy numbers in Fenway that they do at their very pitcher friendly Target Field.
Key Match-ups
SP Kevin Slowey vs. SP Jon Lester
Slowey was a stabilizing force for the Twins this year. Pitching out of the 3rd spot in the rotation, Slowey was the best Twins starter, posting a 1.09 WHIP to go along with a K:BB ration of 6.19:1, walking just 26 batters all season long. He will have to have a better series then Lester, the Sox ace. The 29-year old went 18-4 with a career best 3.37 ERA and gave up the lowest home run total of his career, surrendering just 13. The concern may be that his strikeout ratio fell to the lowest of his career and he averaged less than 6 innings for the first time in his career as well.
Advantage: Red Sox
C Joe Mauer vs. CF Jason Place
The Twins offense didn’t seem to suffer much hitting in the pitcher friendly Target Field. Mauer put together another sensation season, leading all of baseball with a .347 average. He also blasted 31 home runs and drove in 112 for good measure. His OPS was a silly 1.026. On the flip side, Place has provided the Sox with big power, belting 30 long balls in his first full season with the Sox. His OPS of .788 reflects an eye that is just starting to catch up to the big leagues. He whiffed 166 times this past season.
Advantage: Twins
CL Joe Nathan vs. CL Jonathan Papelbon
It’s the battle of two of the very best closers of their generation. Nathan put together another quality season, boasting a WHIP of 1.04 to go along with 37 saves in 42 opportunities. Opponents hit just .196 off of him while his strike out ration was amongst the highest of his career at 11.34. Papelbon, on the other hand, posted one of the best seasons of his career allowing opposing hitters to hit just .174 off him this year. The domination led to the best ERA of his career, 1.34 and 51 saves in 53 opportunities.
Advantage: Even
Prediction: This might be one of the toughest series to call in this year’s playoffs. I think the Twins will have enough offense to edge out the Sox in 5.

National League

Cincinatti Reds (91-72) vs. Washington Nationals (97-65)

The heavily favoured Nationals inched past the Braves to claim the National League East title, despite a staff that pitched to just the 9th best runs allowed in the National League., allowing 4.8 runs per game. It was the offense that led the Nats to the division title, boasting a big 5.3 runs per game to overcome perhaps some deficiencies in their staff. The Reds on the other hand needed a 163rd game to claim the division title, ousting the Cardinals in a 1 game playoff. They have a balanced lineup that put up 4.9 runs per game this year while their staff was the 5th best in the National League, allowing 4.3 runs per game.
Key Match-ups
SP Edinson Volquez vs. SP Jordan Zimmerman
The Nats use of a 4 man rotation is curious to be sure, and you wonder if the arms will find any fatigue into the playoffs here. Zimmerman has already made 39 starts this year and sits at 217.1 innings pitched so far, he will need to go likely at least 2 more starts here if the Nats are going to advance to the NLCS. While the strain may or may not get him, the 39 starts allowed Zimmerman to post the lowest ERA of his career at 2.90 and the lowest opponents average of his career at .223. Cincy will counter with Volquez, who put together his 2nd straight Cy Young type season, going 19-7 with a 3.56 ERA, 217 K and a 1.29 WHIP. He also held opponents to a .230 average. He will have to keep the ball lower in the zone, as he gave up 25 big fly's this season and the Nats offense could mash balls up in the zone. Overall, the Reds boast a deeper three starters then the Nats, but up near the top it evens out.
Advantage: Even
LF Josh Garton vs. RF Mike Stanton
Both lineups are deep and talented but the Reds boast 25 year old Josh Garton who had a sensational season. His OPS of 1.004 is staggering when you combine it with 41 long balls in just 498 plate appearances. The young Canadian is prone to the strikeout but his .367 OBP and .307 average cancel those K’s out. If he can put the bat on the ball in big situation, he could be the difference in this series. The other key difference maker in this series could be 23 year old Mike Stanton. His 40 home runs and 118 RBIs aside, he has a great eye at the plate, taking 104 BB’s this past season to push his OBP to .380. He has the type of raw power that can completely dominate games and even series.
Advantage: Even
CL Nick Masset vs. CL Brian Fuentes
The battle of the pens could play a big part of determining this series. The Reds turn to trusted closet Masset who went 44/47 in save opportunities this past season, despite seeing his WHIP rise to the highest of his career. While his control seemed to go in an out, his strike out rate was also the highest of his career, reducing the number of walks will be important in this series, if he give sup the free passes to the Nats, they will surely make him pay. The Nats counter with Fuentes, the 38-year old had a bounce back year from 2012, boasting a 1.18 WHIP and holding opponents to a .223 average. He was 37/43 in save opportunities, but his declining strikeout ratio has posed some cause for concern. It has dropped each of the past 4 seasons now and you wonder how much gas he has left in the tank.
Advantage: Cincy
Prediction: This series is likely to come down to the starting pitching. The Reds have a deeper 3 in Volquez, Chapman and Bailey who will have to out duel Zimmerman, Latos and Storen. When you look top to bottom of each lineup, there is no clear advantage for either team, and with the better staff going to Cincy, I gotta say Cincy in 5.

Atlanta Braves (95-67) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)

The Braves and Dodgers are two talented teams who put up very similar numbers this year. The Braves put together the best offense in the NL to go along with the league’s 3rd best staff, while the Dodgers posted the league’s 3rd best offense and 4th best staff. This will be perhaps the most entertaining series of the Division round, with two very close teams talent wise.
Key Match-ups
SP Rich Harden vs. SP Clayton Kershaw
The Braves staff is kinda scary good, led by Harden who was once again their best starter. While Harden didn’t put together his best statistical season, he was once again one of the best in baseball. He held hitters to a .237 average in winning 17 games, but he was susceptible to the big fly, surrendering 32 home runs. He will need to keep his 4 pitch repertoire low in the zone or the Dodgers offense will eat him alive. On the flip side, the Dodgers saw down seasons from both Kershaw and Billingsley, but Kershaw was still the ace of the staff. While his WHIP rose to 1.25, Kershaw kept opponents to .234 average, one of the lowest of his careers. Overall, the Dodgers will need likely 2 solid starts from both him and Billingsley to get past the Braves depth of Harden, Hamels and Hanson.
Advantage: Braves
RF Jason Heyward vs. LF Ryan Braun
Two of the best pure hitters in baseball will go head to head in this division series. Heyward saw surprisingly one of his worst statistical seasons this past year. While for anyone else, this would be a stunning offensive season, for Heyward it can be considered a disappointment. His line of .291/.417/.545/.961 is the lowest of his career as was his 108 RBIs. While he smashed 37 home runs, it was the first season of his career where he struggled versus lefties. He will have to be the monster that he has always been to keep the exploits of Ryan Braun from ending the Braves’ season. Braun put together one of the best seasons of his career. His line of .317/.396/.554/.950 was the 3rd best of his career, while his 111 RBIs was the 2nd best total he has ever put up. All in all, this is a superstar matchup that could dictate which offense commands this series.
Advantage: Heyward
CL Committee vs. CL Jonathan Broxton
The Braves struggled with the stopper this year and blew 11 games between their now two closers. While Mike Adams got the lion’s share of the closing duties down the stretch, Heath Bell is still a viable option late in games. Bell, struggled in blowing 9 saves in 37 opportunities this year, a number that had it been smaller might have meant the Braves would be facing the Reds instead of the Dodgers. Broxton in LA was his usual tidy self, converting 30/34 save opportunities this past season. While his ERA spiked to 3.86, his WHIP (1.07) and opponents average (.192) were both amongst the best of his career.
Advantage: Dodgers
Prediction: This is a close series at almost any position, but I have to take pitching over hitting more days then not. The Braves starting 3 are that much better then the Dodgers and that will take the Braves to a 1st round sweep.